New York City Real Estate: Looking Back At A “Gangbusters” 2021 And Ahead At 2022

The concern for 2022 is now: does 2021 rhyme with 2012 and the start of the ramp-up into the … [+] peak, or does 2021 rhyme with the zenith of activity seen in 2015?

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Another year is almost in the books, and what a year it was! In one word, 2021 was “gangbusters” for the New York City realty market.

Almost every metric satisfied or surpassed record levels at one point or another this year, as the momentum that had actually begun in late 2020 grew out of control into an avalanche of activity in2021 Listed below, we have a look back at 2021 and expect what 2022 holds for New York City’s realty market.

2021: A Heavy Year For New Listings

Monthly New Listings Comparison

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2021 Recap: In regards to regular monthly brand-new listings, 2021 began second-rate with counts throughout both January and February listed below 2019 and 2020 levels, along with listed below the 2008 to 2018 average. As the very first quarter ended, seasonality returned to the market, and the normal hectic season started with more and more sellers noting their systems for sale.

While purchasers’ record-setting levels of signed agreements were the primary story of 2021, as it ended up, it was a heavy year for brand-new listings, too. Every month in between March and November saw more brand-new listings than throughout 2019, and more than the 2008 to 2018 average. 2 of the leading 3 heaviest listings months because 2008 happened throughout 2021 (April and September), and just July 2020 saw greater volume when the market resumed from the pandemic. On a cumulative basis, by December 5, 2021, had actually collected almost 18% more brand-new listings than the 2008 to 2018 average.

Cumulative New Listings Comparison

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However, regardless of this rise in listing activity, lots of purchasers stayed disappointed since there merely was inadequate stock. Deducting the number of offers and off-market listings from the number of brand-new listings yielded an unfavorable number for all however 2 months in 2021.

2022 Prediction: Listing volume might subside considerably through mid-January 2022 as sellers stop briefly for the vacations. The return of seasonality recommends that noting volume needs to resume its upward trajectory in mid-Q1. In the interim, a downturn in buy-side activity for the vacations might trigger stock levels to increase in early 2022, pressing costs.

Net New Inventory|Month-to-month brand-new listings minus agreements signed and listings removed market

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Contracts Signed: Buy-Side Momentum

Monthly Contracts Signed Comparison

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2021 Recap: The variety of regular monthly brand-new listings might have begun 2021 at a below-average level, however agreements signed definitely did not. By the end of 2021, the variety of agreements signed was head and shoulders above any other year.

Cumulative Contracts Signed Comparison

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The buy-side momentum developed in late 2020 brought directly through into January at a vigorous clip, and the variety of offers just increased from there. By October, the variety of agreements signed went beyond the previous full-year record of 12,520, embeded in2013 By early December, the variety of offers checked in 2021 had actually doubled the number signed throughout2020 The high-end sector (systems priced +$ 4 million) had its finest year ever in regards to dollar volume. A top-ten ranking of the high-end sector’s leading months by dollar volume given that 2008 consists of 6 months from 2021, with still one month to go.

Yearly Contracts Signed

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2022 Prediction: Deal volume and listing volume generally decrease through the holiday. Throughout the very first quarter of 2022, offer volume might be significantly slower if listing activity stays slower than the 4th quarter of2021 As an outcome, the marketplace might go sideways as purchasers wait on brand-new sellers to revitalize offered stock.

Top 10 Months For Luxury Dollar Volume|Agreements Signed

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Closings: Median Price Subdued

2021 Recap: For the very first time given that mid-2015, noting discount rates fell regularly throughout the year as buy-side competitors increased. Of specific note, the high-end sector moved into overdrive in the spring and fall and as an outcome, 6 out of the all-time leading 10 months for high-end agreement dollar volume occurred in2021

Despite a flurry of activity, the typical cost remained rather controlled through 2021 as purchasers stayed excessively mindful of dangers. The increased number of high-end offers ultimately increased the average cost. An appearance at just recently signed and closed offers recommends upward rate pressures stay in the pipeline, particularly thinking about the record-setting efficiency of high-end systems in November, which have yet to work their method through to public record.

2022 Prediction: We might see a short-term spike in costs as just recently signed high-end offers close, followed by a multi-quarter lull in 2022 as increased competitors among sellers cools the marketplace and purchasers, after requiring to act immediately to prevent losing out, start awaiting cost cuts.

In the future, 2021 will be kept in mind for its outsized activity on all fronts. In lots of methods, the marketplace seemed like it did back at its previous peak in 2015, with engaged purchasers purchasing listings at or near the asking cost prior to the very first provings start.

Median Price and Listing Discount (Original and Last Ask)|By Contract Signed Month

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Which Year Does 2021 “Rhyme” With?

As Mark Twain when stated, “History does not duplicate itself, however it rhymes.” The concern for 2022 is now: does 2021 rhyme with 2012 and the start of the ramp-up into the peak, or does 2021 rhyme with the zenith of activity seen in 2015? If the response is 2012, purchasers would succeed to duplicate the mantra, “time is of the essence” to prepare themselves for a hurried purchase procedure. If the response is 2015, sellers would succeed to beat a possible market lull by a little underpricing to protect a fast offer.

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